In Chapter 7 of the recently released Plan B 4.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization, Lester Brown lays out the Plan B goals for eradicating poverty and stabilizing population. Behind the scenes are a number of datasets and graphs that delve deeper into the trends discussed in the chapter. Here are some highlights from the Chapter 7 data: World population has grown steadily over the past half century, increasing from 2.5 billion in 1950 to a projected 6.8 billion in 2009. The United Nations medium fertility level scenario projects that world population will grow to 9.2 billion in 2050. Their high projection takes the world to 10.5 billion in 2050. Under their low projection, which assumes rapid reductions in fertility rates, population peaks at just over 8 billion in 2042, then begins to decline.
Though life expectancies around the world have increased in the past half century, large discrepancies remain among different regions. Overall, world life expectancy increased from an average of 47 years in the mid-twentieth century to 68 years today. While life expectancy in 1950 hovered around 40 years in both Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, it has since increased far more rapidly in Asia, reaching 69 years, compared to 51 years in Sub-Saharan Africa. On a regional basis, the United States and Canada top the world with an average life expectancy of 79 years.
Last Monday the popular show “CSI: Miami” ran a segment in which a young woman dies and it turns out to be because of a GMO corn developed by a rogue company called “Bixton Organic Foods.” In the plot, the company willingly puts people at risk. This fictional scenario bears no plausible tie to reality, but it fits well with the simplistic, good guys/bad guys image in the Myth that many people believe about farming. To see how it feels to be the brunt of a distortion like this, I recommend you read a post from a real corn farmer.
So why is it possible for CBS writers to generate fictional “drama” about the “danger of GMO” when in fact GMO technology has been used with complete safety for more than a decade on a gigantic scale? (Having witnessed first-hand the thought and care that went into developing this technology over the past 30 years, I’m not surprised by that safety record). There is an abundance of good information available about this technology including many confirmations of its safety by panel after panel of highly qualified, science and medical experts around the world. I think the reason that the fear of GMO persists in certain extreme circles is the same reason that there are still “birthers” and people who are sure that health reform will lead to “death panels.” Its not that there is much overlap between these demographics but rather that the same mechanism of “selective knowing” is involved.
The large-scale Organic dairy cooperative, “Organic Valley” has just sunk to a new low in the practice of “I will market against my farmer neighbors by stoking consumer’s fears.” They announced that they have launched an on-line calculator that is supposed to show you how much pesticide and fertilizer use is avoided when you buy their products. The news release essentially boils down to the message, “buy our products or you will probably die!” It also essentially accuses the 97.5% of us who don’t buy Organic of destroying the planet.
When talking about pesticides the press report says: “For adults, exposure through diet has been linked to infertility, Parkinson’s, testicular cancer, birth defects and much more. More than one million children in America age five and under ingest at least 15 pesticides daily. Early exposures are suspected in the sharp rise in health problems including autism, obesity, asthma, brain cancer and other childhood cancers.” This broad-brush assertion is misleading on so many levels that it is hard to know where to start. I’m not saying that there have never been any health issues with any pesticide anywhere, but we also have sufficient food in part because of pesticides. Though many people don’t know it, there are pesticides used on organic crops as well. Actually, the EPA has done a very good job of regulating pesticide use over the years so that people don’t need to be frightened about their food.
When dermatologist June Irwin first stood up in 1985 to speak at a Hudson, Quebec, town council meeting about the potential link between synthetic lawn pesticide and herbicide use and human and animal illnesses, she was written off as a flake. Irwin persisted, though, attending “every single town meeting in Hudson for six consecutive years - each time reading aloud a different letter with new observations and facts.” Eventually, she got her message across, and Hudson (population 5000) became the first town in North America to ban the use of these chemicals.
Lots of people in America are worried about their food - usually not about having enough food, but mostly about things that might be in their food that could potentially hurt them or their children. People also worry about the environmental impacts of food production. At one level I’m glad that people are engaged in this way and I do believe that there are legitimate concerns. I happen to think that some of the fear about food is misplaced.
I believe that much of this fear stems from a limited understanding of toxicology, molecular genetics, and also what farming is actually about today. Very few Americans have any real contact with farming. Frankly, some of this fear is also driven by the activities of businesses and organizations with a vested economic interest in alarming people.
I’ve been working as an agricultural scientist for 32 years. I’ve had the opportunity to learn about lots of crops grown all over the world. I’ve been involved with all sorts of different technologies. I’ve seen huge changes in agriculture over time. So from all of this experience, do I worry about anything to do with food? Yes, absolutely I do worry! But my list of worries is a little different from the norm
Alright. I know that the title of this post is controversial for this website, but I’m serious about this. Read a little further and this might not seem so radical.
Over the last 40 years I have gardened in Denver, Davis California, Western Colorado, Delaware and in San Diego county. By far the most challenging place to garden has been in San Diego. We have no winter here to knock back the pest populations. We have lots of misty, cloudy days in May and June because we are only 2 miles from the ocean. It is pretty much of a pest and disease heaven. I am constantly fighting pest issues in my garden and vineyard here, and I often wish I had better tools to do that.
Since July 2003, sustainablog has been providing information on environmental and economic sustainability, green and sustainable business, and environmental politics. The blog regularly features environmental leaders, experts in alternative energy and green technology, and real people trying to lighten their environmental footprints.
World population has grown steadily over the past half century, increasing from 2.5 billion in 1950 to a projected 6.8 billion in 2009. The United Nations medium fertility level scenario projects that world population will grow to 9.2 billion in 2050. Their high projection takes the world to 10.5 billion in 2050. Under their low projection, which assumes rapid reductions in fertility rates, population peaks at just over 8 billion in 2042, then begins to decline.
