{"id":15836,"date":"2013-08-21T12:02:46","date_gmt":"2013-08-21T18:02:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/wordpress-367309-1145705.cloudwaysapps.com\/?p=15836"},"modified":"2013-08-21T12:02:46","modified_gmt":"2013-08-21T18:02:46","slug":"full-planet-empty-plates-chapter-8-rising-temperature-rising-food-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/articles\/full-planet-empty-plates-chapter-8-rising-temperature-rising-food-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"Full Planet, Empty Plates, Chapter 8. Rising Temperature, Rising Food Prices"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"corn<\/a><\/p>\n

Editor\u2019s note:<\/strong>\u00a0We\u2019re proud to support the Earth Policy Institute\u2019s online publication of Lester Brown\u2019s most recent book\u00a0Full Planet, Empty Plates\u00a0by publishing selections from the book. If you missed other installments, you can find them\u00a0here<\/a>; we\u2019ll add new ones every couple of weeks.<\/em><\/p>\n

By Lester R. Brown<\/strong><\/p>\n

Agriculture as it exists today developed over 11,000 years of rather remarkable climate stability. It has evolved to maximize production within that climate system. Now, suddenly, the climate is changing. With each passing year, the agricultural system is becoming more out of sync with the climate system.<\/p>\n

In generations past, when there was an extreme weather event, such as a monsoon failure in India, a severe drought in Russia<\/a>, or an intense heat wave in the U.S. Corn Belt<\/a>, we knew that things would shortly return to normal. But today there is no \u201cnormal\u201d to return to. The earth\u2019s climate is now in a constant state of flux, making it both unreliable and unpredictable.<\/p>\n

Since 1970, the earth\u2019s average temperature has risen more than 1 degree Fahrenheit. (See Figure 8\u20131<\/a>.) If we continue with business as usual, burning ever more oil, coal, and natural gas, it is projected to rise some 11 degrees Fahrenheit (6 degrees Celsius) by the end of this century. The rise will be uneven. It will be much greater in the higher latitudes than in the equatorial regions, greater over land than over oceans, and greater in continental interiors than in coastal regions.<\/p>\n

As the earth\u2019s temperature rises, it affects agriculture in many ways. High temperatures interfere with pollination and reduce photosynthesis of basic food crops. High temperatures can also dehydrate plants. When a corn plant curls its leaves to reduce exposure to the sun, photosynthesis is reduced.<\/p>\n

The earth\u2019s rising temperature also affects crop yields indirectly via the melting of mountain glaciers. As the larger glaciers shrink and the smaller ones disappear, the ice melt that sustains rivers, and the irrigation systems dependent on them, will diminish. The continuing loss of mountain glaciers and the resulting reduced meltwater runoff could create unprecedented water shortages and political instability in some of the world\u2019s more densely populated countries.<\/p>\n

Scientists also expect higher temperatures to bring more drought\u2014witness the dramatic increase in the land area affected by drought in recent decades. A team of scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in the United States reported that the earth\u2019s land area experiencing very dry conditions expanded from well below 20 percent from the 1950s to the 1970s to closer to 25 percent in recent years.<\/p>\n

As the earth\u2019s temperature rises, scientists expect heat waves to be both more frequent and more intense. Stated otherwise, crop-shrinking heat waves will now become part of the agricultural landscape. Among other things, this means that the world should increase its carryover stocks of grain to provide adequate food security.<\/p>\n

For the full report click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

From Full Planet, Empty Plates: The New Geopolitics of Food Scarcity<\/em> by Lester R. Brown (New York: W.W. Norton & Co.). Supporting data, video, and slideshows are available for free download at www.earth-policy.org\/books\/fpep<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Image credit: <\/strong>agrilifetoday<\/a> via photopin<\/a> cc<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Agriculture as it exists today developed over 11,000 years of rather remarkable climate stability. It has evolved to maximize production within that climate system. Now, suddenly, the climate is changing. 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