{"id":4993,"date":"2009-09-27T23:11:27","date_gmt":"2009-09-28T05:11:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/wordpress-367309-1145705.cloudwaysapps.com\/?p=4993"},"modified":"2009-09-27T23:11:27","modified_gmt":"2009-09-28T05:11:27","slug":"food-supply-worries-of-an-agricultural-scientist-part-3-climate-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/articles\/food-supply-worries-of-an-agricultural-scientist-part-3-climate-change\/","title":{"rendered":"Food Supply Worries of an Agricultural Scientist, Part 3: Climate Change"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a>
\n\"a<\/p>\n

[social_buttons]<\/p>\n

I’ll come back to the Mycotoxin issue soon. \u00a0Instead, I’ll talk today about my serious worries about Climate Change. \u00a0<\/p>\n

People involved in world agriculture have no patience with the supposed “debate” about climate change. \u00a0We are already seeing the effects, and the projections for the future are not encouraging. \u00a0The most troubling feature of this phenomenon (and one that occurs even if you don’t believe that it is human-driven) is that we are facing increasing variation<\/strong> in climatic events. \u00a0The yearly changes in average temperature or even annual rainfall may not be dramatic, but what we are anticipating is that there will be more extreme weather events. \u00a0Climate averages are not<\/strong> what matters for crop production –\u00a0Variation<\/strong> is. \u00a0A few days of intense rain or heat at the wrong time can\u00a0devastate\u00a0a crop. \u00a0A few weeks of drought can do the same. \u00a0A single hail or frost event can make all the difference in what a farmer can harvest. \u00a0We have always had those risks for farming and only long term data will demonstrate whether there has been an increasing trend as is predicted. \u00a0For instance, It isn’t possible yet to say that the current, extended drought<\/a> in Australia is caused by elevated greenhouse gasses, but some day we will know whether it was by looking back historically. \u00a0Of course that will be too late. \u00a0Our actions have to come now. \u00a0The other huge threat from climate change is that water supplies will be more limiting in many areas that are irrigated today. \u00a0Though that area is much smaller than rain-fed areas, it is very important to the food supply.<\/p>\n

Some have predicted that “Global warming” and elevated CO2 will boost crop production in certain areas. \u00a0There might be some occasions where higher temperatures will enhance some yields in normally cold areas, but if the warmth comes with other extreme weather events, the benefits will be diminished. \u00a0It also turns out that plants can’t really take full advantage of high CO2 levels<\/a>. \u00a0Basically, \u00a0there is no real “up-side” of climate change for farming.<\/p>\n

Issues Already Upon Us<\/h2>\n

There are more subtle trends already apparent that represent the effects of climate change on agriculture: shifting pest ranges<\/strong>\u00a0because of shifts in temperature and rainfall timing.<\/p>\n

The geographical range of plant pests is frequently determined by climate. \u00a0Northern growing areas have the advantage that many pests cannot survive the winter and can only become a problem by annual migration and new population growth. \u00a0This limits their annual impact. \u00a0The highly productive potato growing areas in the Pacific Northwest (ID, WA, OR) have not had problems with a particularly nasty pest called the\u00a0Potato Tuber Moth<\/a> (Phthorimaea operculella<\/em>) because until recently, the pest couldn’t “over-winter” there. It was too cold.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"Potato<\/p>\n

Now subtle temperature shifts have allowed this pest to successfully overwinter in the PNW. \u00a0The moth lays its eggs on tubers in the ground that are exposed by soil cracks late in the season. \u00a0The larvae hatch out during storage and make a real mess of the potato as shown in the image in this post. This pest is now an emerging threat in this major potato production area. \u00a0This is just one example of what climate change will mean, but it demonstrates that even subtle shifts in temperature can lead to major problems.<\/p>\n

There is another climate change trend that is happening just as predicted. Northern California is getting more of its annual precipitation<\/a> as Spring rain rather than as winter snowfall in the mountains. \u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"Symptoms<\/p>\n

That is bad from a water supply point of view for cities and farmers, but it is also a problem for apple growers. \u00a0Apple Scab<\/a> (Venturia inaequalis<\/em>) is a severe disease problem for apples, but in the past it has been less of a problem in dry, irrigated, apple growing areas like California and Washington. \u00a0In recent years there have been more untimely spring rains that have turned this disease into a real threat for California apple growers. \u00a0This has been particularly problematic for Organic growers whose fungicide options (mainly copper compounds) are not very effective against the disease. \u00a0Again, this is just one example of the sort of changes to which farmers will need to adapt.<\/p>\n

How Will This Play Out?<\/h2>\n

My prediction is that farmers in the developed world will largely find ways to deal with these new challenges. \u00a0There are actually good, safe pesticide options<\/a> to deal with the shifting pressures from insects and diseases. \u00a0There is a GMO potato trait for resistance to the Tuber Moth. \u00a0It was originally developed to help third world potato growers, but as I said in an earlier post, it is unlikely to get used<\/a> in the PNW for less than rational reasons. Late season insecticide sprays will be needed instead. \u00a0There are drought tolerant crops (some GMO, some not) that are beginning to be commercialized and these will help reduce the impact of climate variation. \u00a0There are highly efficient drip irrigation systems that can help stretch water resources.<\/p>\n

I’m not saying that dealing with climate change will be easy for farmers, but I do think that there are adaptations and technologies that will be able to mitigate many climate change effects as long as we do something about overall emissions to head-off the most severe climate change scenarios\u00a0(it is not obvious that we are that serious<\/a>. If we do nothing, farmers won’t be able to continue to feed all of us).<\/p>\n

\u00a0I do expect food prices to rise because of climate change and because of increasing overall global food demand driven by population growth and rising standards-of-living in the developing world. \u00a0For we “rich” folks that will not be a huge issue. \u00a0For the world’s poor, it is a different story.<\/p>\n

The Ethics<\/h2>\n

What really worries me about Climate Change is that it will have a devastating impact on farm\u00a0productivity\u00a0that will hurt the poor people around the world. \u00a0Counties that are highly dependent on food imports will see the proportion of their income spent on food increase to unacceptable levels (as in the “preview” we saw in the food commodity price spike of 2007\/8<\/a>). \u00a0Beyond imports, much of the world’s population is fed, and will continue to be fed, by local, low-technology, small-holder farming. \u00a0This part of the food supply is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. \u00a0I’ve already blogged about the severe ethical implications<\/a> of efforts to block the introduction of technologies that could change the prospects for some of these farmers.<\/p>\n

The Politics<\/h2>\n

So, climate change is definitely on my “worry list” for the food supply. \u00a0I was\u00a0hopeful\u00a0that\u00a0that this issue would be better addressed now that we\u00a0finally have a President (my favorite candidate by the way) who was\u00a0quick\u00a0to understand that climate change is a real problem. \u00a0 I was also encouraged when Obama promised that he would respect science<\/a>. \u00a0 The\u00a0prominent\u00a0early actions of the Obama administration have not been all that encouraging<\/a> in this regard. \u00a0They have been initiatives to increase Organic and small farms. \u00a0I’m sorry, but as nice as those sound to a city politician, neither of those agendas will help with this very real challenge that we face, and those are farming systems that are, themselves, highly vulnerable to climate change threats. \u00a0<\/p>\n

Some Hope<\/h2>\n

I was encouraged to learn last Friday that Obama appointed Dr. Roger Beachy<\/a> to head the National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA). \u00a0In that position he will be in charge of the process of awarding research grants of $160-200 million\/year for developing practical and sustainable farming methods and many of those could be improvements for dealing with climate change. \u00a0 He hopes to expand that to $700 million over the next few year. \u00a0I first met Roger in the late 80s when he was a pioneer in the area of virus resistance in crops. \u00a0Later he became the director of the Danforth Center <\/a>which has been instrumental in applying biotechnology advances that help in the Third World<\/a>. \u00a0Their virus resistant\u00a0Cassava<\/a>\u00a0is a prime example. \u00a0Dr. Beachy will now enter a complex political environment, but I am optimistic that he will be able to generate some sound policy direction.<\/p>\n

I’m not all gloom and doom about this, but Climate Change is still on my “Worry List” \u00a0for the food supply. \u00a0There is no room for complacency on this issue.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Image of drought in Java from Dmahendra<\/a>. \u00a0Potato tuber moth damage image from INRA<\/a>. \u00a0Apple scab image from the University of Illinois<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Please comment on this site or email me at feedback.sdsavage@gmail.com.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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