{"id":5047,"date":"2009-11-04T12:49:48","date_gmt":"2009-11-04T18:49:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/wordpress-367309-1145705.cloudwaysapps.com\/?p=5047"},"modified":"2009-11-04T12:49:48","modified_gmt":"2009-11-04T18:49:48","slug":"rehabilitating-the-concept-of-bio-fuels-part-one","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/articles\/rehabilitating-the-concept-of-bio-fuels-part-one\/","title":{"rendered":"Rehabilitating The Concept of Bio-Fuels: Part One"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/files\/2009\/10\/biofuel.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-5050\" src=\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/files\/2009\/10\/biofuel.jpg\" alt=\"A biofuel station sign\" width=\"500\" height=\"375\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>[social_buttons]<\/p>\n<p>In 2006 I attended a BIO meeting in Toronto focused on the new <a title=\"Wikipedia site \" href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Bioeconomy\" target=\"_blank\">bio-based economy<\/a>. \u00a0Oil had just risen to <a title=\"Inflation adjusted oil price history link\" href=\"http:\/\/www.inflationdata.com\/inflation\/images\/charts\/Oil\/Inflation_Adj_Oil_Prices_Chart.htm\" target=\"_blank\">$70\/barrel<\/a> and it was a time when environmental NGOs, biotech companies and even oil companies seemed to be on the &#8220;same page&#8221; in terms of their enthusiasm for moving to plant-based feedstocks as the perfect alternative to oil dependency. \u00a0With the very obvious international security costs of the oil economy, and what were then thought to be unimaginable energy costs, it was a remarkable sort of celebration event for all the alternative energy and materials folks who has suffered under the decades of cheap oil. \u00a0As much as I was happy to see such &#8220;multi-stakeholder&#8221; agreement, I was sad because anyone with an agricultural perspective could see a train-wreck coming.<\/p>\n<p>People were making presentations about cool second generation innovations like &#8220;Cellulosic&#8221; ethanol from sources like switchgrass or <em>Miscanthus<\/em> and also about ethanol alternatives like butanol. \u00a0People were talking about bio-materials for even things like the auto industry. \u00a0However; the side conversations were about the huge boom underway in the corn ethanol industry. \u00a0Orders for stainless\u00a0steel\u00a0tanks were back-logged two years. \u00a0What had started as a local, farmer-cooperative funded industry had become a venture capital frenzy. \u00a0I could see that long before the promise of &#8220;second generation&#8221; biofuels could be realized, corn ethanol would get to be big enough that it would end up fracturing the amazing consensus about the bio-economy that was functioning at that conference.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<h2>The Food Crisis of 2007\/8<\/h2>\n<p>Soon \u00a0(2007\/8) there was an unprecedented spike in global food commodity prices. \u00a0The significant diversion of food crops (corn, soy, palm oil) to biofuel got much of the blame which is exactly what I feared back in 2006. \u00a0Biofuel might have deserved some blame but not nearly as much as it got. \u00a0The food crisis of 2007\/8 was actually a &#8220;perfect storm&#8221; that was driven by:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Increasing world population<\/li>\n<li>Increasing standards of living in the developing world<\/li>\n<li>Unprecedented energy costs (which make fertilizer very expensive)<\/li>\n<li>Droughts in major exporting regions like Australia (Climate change?)<\/li>\n<li>Biofuel demand for food crops<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>There was some <a title=\"some of the good articles\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2008\/06\/30\/business\/worldbusiness\/30trade.html?_r=1\" target=\"_blank\">excellent news coverage <\/a>about this in the <a title=\"editorial on this subject\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2008\/04\/10\/opinion\/10thu1.html\" target=\"_blank\">New York Times<\/a> (of all places, not exactly an Ag publication). \u00a0Still, what basically never came up in the press about this situation was that when corn is used for making ethanol, 40% of the nutritional value remains after the fermentation process and becomes a high protein feed for cattle called <a title=\"University of Minnesota site about DDGS\" href=\"http:\/\/www.ddgs.umn.edu\/overview.htm\" target=\"_blank\">DDGS<\/a>. \u00a0The famous &#8220;20%&#8221; of US corn going to ethanol was really only 12% &#8211; still significant, but not quite as disruptive as it seemed. \u00a0By the way, all those factors still exist and could come back together when this recession is over.<\/p>\n<h2>Some Historical Perspective<\/h2>\n<p>Interestingly this is a very old debate. \u00a0I stumbled across a <a title=\"Transeau's paper, quote from near the end\" href=\"https:\/\/dspace03.it.ohio-state.edu\/dspace\/bitstream\/1811\/2294\/1\/V26N01_001.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">paper from 1926<\/a> by E.N. Transeau that said,\u00a0<em>&#8220;The suggestion that our liquid fuels, petroleum and gasolene, may some day be replaced by alcohol made from plants is quite unreasonable.\u00a0 A little figuring will show that to substitute the energy of alcohol for the energy now being developed from gasolene would require all the corn now being grown in the United States.&#8221; \u00a0<\/em>Average<em> c<\/em>orn yields in 1926 were less than 1\/6 of what they are today and acreage is down, so at its peak corn ethanol might actually have been using as much corn as was grown in Transeau&#8217;s time. \u00a0This proves two things: crop yields have increased dramatically and we are using a lot more transportation fuels.<\/p>\n<h2>The Indirect Emissions Discussion<\/h2>\n<p>Another argument arose against &#8220;first generation&#8221; biofuels. \u00a0Searchinger et al published <a title=\"Link to the Science article\" href=\"http:\/\/www.sciencemag.org\/cgi\/content\/abstract\/1151861\" target=\"_blank\">a paper in Science<\/a> that pointed out that if biofuel demand for crops seriously competed for current supply, it drove the expansion of farm land into previously natural areas, for instance in South America. \u00a0When an existing forest or grassland is converted to farmland, there is a substantial <a title=\"There are land use change values within these PAS document\" href=\"http:\/\/www.bsigroup.com\/en\/BSIGroup\/sectorsandservices\/Forms\/PAS-2050-Form-page\/\" target=\"_blank\">release of the carbon dioxide<\/a> that had been sequestered in the soil of the natural system. \u00a0Once the farm was in place there were more greenhouse gas emissions\/hectare than when it was natural. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Getting global, macro-economic calculations right on this issue is <a title=\"An interesting balancing opinion about this\" href=\"http:\/\/biofuelsandclimate.wordpress.com\/2008\/03\/17\/indirect-land-use-thoughts\/\" target=\"_blank\">certainly complicated,<\/a> but the issue cannot be ignored. \u00a0There is only so much farm land. \u00a0If yield gains can&#8217;t keep up with growing demand for food (which will be harder in the future), there will be\u00a0inevitable\u00a0pressure for farming more land. \u00a0Biofuels, to the extent that they compete for land, have the indirect potential to drive land-use-change.<\/p>\n<h2>Applying the Indirect Emissions Issue to Other Food-Limiting Decisions<\/h2>\n<p>What is interesting is to apply this same logic to other &#8220;land use&#8221; issues. \u00a0Japan and most countries in <a title=\"Great NYT article on Europe and biotech\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/gwire\/2009\/10\/21\/21greenwire-ghost-of-frankenfood-haunts-europe-55309.html?pagewanted=1\" target=\"_blank\">Europe<\/a> have chosen <span style=\"text-decoration: underline\">not<\/span> to apply biotechnology solutions in their crops. \u00a0Because of this their agricultural is less productive than it could be by a significant percentage. \u00a0This is not a food supply problem for them, because they simply import more food from around the world, but in the process they are exerting more pressure for land-use change than they would if they had allowed the biotech crops. \u00a0A \u00a0far less significant example is that of the Organic movement. \u00a0Organic farms generally have lower yields. \u00a0That has always been the justification for the &#8220;Organic Premium&#8221; that is paid by the Organic consumer. \u00a0Even though Organic farming uses less costly inputs in terms of fertilizers and chemicals, it needs a higher price because of it&#8217;s labor costs and it&#8217;s typically lower yields.\u00a0Organic is still so small that it isn&#8217;t really a pressing issue for land-use-change, but if it were ever to be a significant part or our farming system, it would lead to land-use-change pressure.<\/p>\n<p>So, flash forward to 2009 and biofuels are now virtual pariahs to <a title=\"A skeptical look at biofuels\" href=\"http:\/\/cleantechnica.com\/2009\/10\/28\/is-global-scale-biofuels-production-good-or-bad-for-climate-change\/\">some sustainability advocates<\/a>. \u00a0<a title=\"The next post on this topic\" href=\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/2009\/11\/05\/rehabilitating-bio-fuels-part-2-interesting-second-generation-options\/#more-5054\" target=\"_blank\">In a\u00a0subsequent\u00a0post<\/a> I&#8217;ll talk about some trends that could hopefully restore some of the consensus we once had around this issue.<\/p>\n<p>Biofuel image from <a title=\"Source of this image\" href=\"\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-sa\/2.0\/\" target=\"_blank\">TheTruthAbout&#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a title=\"Source of this image\" href=\"\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-sa\/2.0\/\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>You are welcome to comment on this site or email me at feedback.sdsavage@gmail.com<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[social_buttons] In 2006 I attended a BIO meeting in Toronto focused on the new bio-based economy. \u00a0Oil had just risen to $70\/barrel and it was a time when environmental NGOs,&nbsp;[ &hellip; ]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":5050,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,7],"tags":[557,66,4056,133,4057,3741,4058,4059,4060,20],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Rehabilitating The Concept of Bio-Fuels: Part One &#8226; Sustainablog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/articles\/rehabilitating-the-concept-of-bio-fuels-part-one\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rehabilitating The Concept of Bio-Fuels: Part One &#8226; Sustainablog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"[social_buttons] In 2006 I attended a BIO meeting in Toronto focused on the new bio-based economy. \u00a0Oil had just risen to $70\/barrel and it was a time when environmental NGOs,&nbsp;[ &hellip; 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