{"id":9915,"date":"2011-01-11T13:50:54","date_gmt":"2011-01-11T19:50:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.sustainablog.org\/?p=9915"},"modified":"2017-08-02T18:06:38","modified_gmt":"2017-08-02T22:06:38","slug":"effects-of-climate-change-on-agricultur","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/articles\/effects-of-climate-change-on-agricultur\/","title":{"rendered":"Concern and Encouragement In The News About Climate Change and Food"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"FAO<\/p>\n

Last week, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization released a report<\/a> which described the current upswing of global food prices (see chart above). \u00a0They characterized it as a \u201cpolite warning\u201d of things to come in an era of climate change.<\/p>\n

This rise is reminiscent of the 2007\/8 food-price spike. That phenomenon raised American food prices by a modest 5%. \u00a0That same spike caused food riots in several countries that are highly dependent on imported food and for whom food is a large part or a family budget.\u00a0 It looks like we are headed for a similar crisis again.<\/p>\n

The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture<\/h2>\n

Climate extremes played a significant role in both of these food price spikes, but there were other factors involved (rising population, rising income levels in China and India, increasing energy costs, biofuel demand). \u00a0This troublesome brew of factors is likely to combine with greater frequency and intensity according to all the models of climate change. \u00a0In the future, supply issues with phosphorus fertilizer could become another driver of food shortages. \u00a0In the absence of a coordinated international response to climate change, it is prudent to be doing the work to try to prepare our food system for these inevitable shocks.<\/p>\n

A Bit of Hope for the Food Supply<\/h2>\n

That brings up the hopeful bit of news from last week. \u00a0Pioneer Hi-Breds (owned by DuPont) announced that it will commercially launch a new line of AquaMax corn hybrids<\/a> for farmers in the Western Corn Belt of the US in 2012. \u00a0These seed options will give farmers around a 5% yield advantage under drought limiting circumstances. \u00a0This is a very significant advancement, but it was not the first of its type. \u00a0The seed companies Garst and NK (owned by Syngenta) have previously announced that they will start selling their own Agrisure Artesian\u00a0 drought tolerant corn hybrids<\/a> in that market in 2011.<\/p>\n

This may not sound that significant, but drought tolerance has long been something of a “holy grail” for the seed industry. \u00a0Most of the world’s farms are “rain fed” meaning that they are completely dependent on precipitation to support the growth of the crop. \u00a0In some areas like Iowa (see Chart below), growing season rainfall is commonly in the 18-24 inch range that is optimal for a corn crop, but there still are years that are too dry or when the pattern of the rainfall is non-ideal. \u00a0Areas like Western Nebraska are frequently dry enough that yields are severely limited. \u00a0The new hybrids that are soon to be available will actually help growers in both areas and actually represent a significant and long-sought advancement. \u00a0Enhanced drought tolerance has always been a desirable trait, but climate change makes it even more important.<\/p>\n

\"108-year<\/p>\n

In both cases (DuPont and Syngenta), these new drought tolerant lines were developed using “marker assisted selection” (MAS)<\/a>. \u00a0This is just traditional breeding informed by the ability to track the movement of hundreds of genes in the crosses via biotechnology. \u00a0There are also efforts underway to enhance drought tolerance with transgenic methods<\/a>, but it will be several years at best before those make it through the regulatory process. \u00a0The MAS approach is also being extended to other crops like wheat.<\/p>\n

A Case Where A For-Profit Effort Is Good For Society and Can Be Extended to Non-Profit Activity<\/h2>\n

There are some people who seem to think there is something intrinsically wrong with a for-profit seed industry, but this is a good example of how competitive, commercial companies make multi-million-dollar, long-term investments that would otherwise never occur. In this case, an investment that will not only benefit the farmers and the seed companies, but also the poor of the world who really feel the impact of food price spikes. In addition, the technology advancements from these commercial seed markets are being leveraged on a not-for-profit bais to deliver similar benefits to small-holder farmers in the developing world. \u00a0It is estimated that climate change could drop production for poor maize farmers by 30%<\/a>, so this is important.<\/p>\n

Leveraging The Investment for Poor, Small-Holder Agriculture<\/h2>\n

Syngenta, through its philanthropic arm<\/a> the Syngenta Foundation, is working with the independent, international breeding program, CIMMYT<\/a>, to make their drought tolerance technology available for the corn hybrids that are grown by small farmers throughout Asia.\u00a0 There is a similar project for sub-Saharan Africa called WEMA which is funded by the Gates Foundation<\/a> among others.\u00a0 It is leveraging conventional and MAB advances from Monsanto<\/a>.\u00a0 This is not about creating markets for the big seed companies, as many falsely claim.\u00a0 The goal is to provide the advanced technology to the local seed companies and to the governmental breeding programs in the Third World \u2013 technology they could never afford to develop.<\/p>\n

The bottom line is that we are facing at least periodic food supply challenges that are exacerbated by climate change.\u00a0 It is a really good thing that companies have been investing in the development of crops that can ameliorate that threat, at least to some degree.\u00a0 This in no way reduces the need for society to wrestle with the issue of climate change from a personal and public policy perspective.\u00a0 It is just one small but important contribution.<\/p>\n

Graphics by Steve Savage<\/a>. \u00a0Price information\u00a0based on FAO data<\/a>. \u00a0Rainfall data from NOAA.<\/p>\n

Concerned about ingredients in your personal care products? Check out our current listings of organic and natural options<\/a> from Aura Cacia<\/a>, Kiss My Face<\/a>, and Burt’s Bees<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Last week, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization released a report which described the current upswing of global food prices (see chart above). \u00a0They characterized it as a \u201cpolite [ … ]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":9933,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,7],"tags":[100,18,2835,133,4756,4757,3741,4557,4758,3742,3669,4759,754,4760,4761,4762,4763,104],"yoast_head":"\nHope, Worries about Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Agricultural scientists hope to minimize the effects of climate change on agriculture with new drought-resistant seed technologies.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/articles\/effects-of-climate-change-on-agricultur\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Hope, Worries about Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Agricultural scientists hope to minimize the effects of climate change on agriculture with new drought-resistant seed technologies.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/articles\/effects-of-climate-change-on-agricultur\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Sustainablog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2011-01-11T19:50:54+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2017-08-02T22:06:38+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/FAO-Prices.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"500\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"390\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Steve Savage\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Steve Savage\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/articles\/effects-of-climate-change-on-agricultur\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/articles\/effects-of-climate-change-on-agricultur\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Steve Savage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/#\/schema\/person\/94b328be4b4ff77660bf858045245fe0\"},\"headline\":\"Concern and Encouragement In The News About Climate Change and Food\",\"datePublished\":\"2011-01-11T19:50:54+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2017-08-02T22:06:38+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/articles\/effects-of-climate-change-on-agricultur\/\"},\"wordCount\":910,\"commentCount\":7,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"africa\",\"agriculture\",\"asia\",\"Climate change\",\"Drought tolerance\",\"DuPont\",\"Food Crisis\",\"food prices\",\"Garst\",\"Gates Foundation\",\"GMO\",\"Marker Assisted Breeding\",\"Monsanto\",\"NK\",\"Pioneer\",\"Seed Industry\",\"Syngenta\",\"Water\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Science\",\"Technology\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/articles\/effects-of-climate-change-on-agricultur\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/articles\/effects-of-climate-change-on-agricultur\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/articles\/effects-of-climate-change-on-agricultur\/\",\"name\":\"Hope, Worries about Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2011-01-11T19:50:54+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2017-08-02T22:06:38+00:00\",\"description\":\"Agricultural scientists hope to minimize the effects of climate change on agriculture with new drought-resistant seed technologies.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/articles\/effects-of-climate-change-on-agricultur\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/articles\/effects-of-climate-change-on-agricultur\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/articles\/effects-of-climate-change-on-agricultur\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Concern and Encouragement In The News About Climate Change and Food\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/\",\"name\":\"Sustainablog\",\"description\":\"Since 2003, Sustainablog has been one of the pioneers of sustainability news online.\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Sustainablog\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/cropped-sblog-logo_3b.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/cropped-sblog-logo_3b.jpg\",\"width\":200,\"height\":142,\"caption\":\"Sustainablog\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"}},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/#\/schema\/person\/94b328be4b4ff77660bf858045245fe0\",\"name\":\"Steve Savage\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/175e6c22e30109e61f08983a074ad717?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/175e6c22e30109e61f08983a074ad717?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Steve Savage\"},\"description\":\"Born in Denver, now living near San Diego. Agricultural scientist for 30+ years with a Ph.D. in Plant Pathology. Have worked for Colorado State University, DuPont and Mycogen and for the last 13 years consulting for all sorts or companies, universities and grower groups. Experience in biological control, natural products, synthetic chemicals, genetics, GMOs and agronomic practices. Have given multiple invited talks on the interaction between agriculture and climate change (both ways)\",\"sameAs\":[\"http:\/\/importantmedia.org\/members\/sdsavage\/\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/articles\/author\/sdsavage\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Hope, Worries about Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture","description":"Agricultural scientists hope to minimize the effects of climate change on agriculture with new drought-resistant seed technologies.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/articles\/effects-of-climate-change-on-agricultur\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Hope, Worries about Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture","og_description":"Agricultural scientists hope to minimize the effects of climate change on agriculture with new drought-resistant seed technologies.","og_url":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/articles\/effects-of-climate-change-on-agricultur\/","og_site_name":"Sustainablog","article_published_time":"2011-01-11T19:50:54+00:00","article_modified_time":"2017-08-02T22:06:38+00:00","og_image":[{"width":500,"height":390,"url":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/FAO-Prices.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Steve Savage","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Steve Savage","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/articles\/effects-of-climate-change-on-agricultur\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/articles\/effects-of-climate-change-on-agricultur\/"},"author":{"name":"Steve Savage","@id":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/#\/schema\/person\/94b328be4b4ff77660bf858045245fe0"},"headline":"Concern and Encouragement In The News About Climate Change and Food","datePublished":"2011-01-11T19:50:54+00:00","dateModified":"2017-08-02T22:06:38+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/articles\/effects-of-climate-change-on-agricultur\/"},"wordCount":910,"commentCount":7,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/#organization"},"keywords":["africa","agriculture","asia","Climate change","Drought tolerance","DuPont","Food Crisis","food prices","Garst","Gates Foundation","GMO","Marker Assisted Breeding","Monsanto","NK","Pioneer","Seed Industry","Syngenta","Water"],"articleSection":["Science","Technology"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/articles\/effects-of-climate-change-on-agricultur\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/articles\/effects-of-climate-change-on-agricultur\/","url":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/articles\/effects-of-climate-change-on-agricultur\/","name":"Hope, Worries about Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/#website"},"datePublished":"2011-01-11T19:50:54+00:00","dateModified":"2017-08-02T22:06:38+00:00","description":"Agricultural scientists hope to minimize the effects of climate change on agriculture with new drought-resistant seed technologies.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/articles\/effects-of-climate-change-on-agricultur\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/articles\/effects-of-climate-change-on-agricultur\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/articles\/effects-of-climate-change-on-agricultur\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Concern and Encouragement In The News About Climate Change and Food"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/#website","url":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/","name":"Sustainablog","description":"Since 2003, Sustainablog has been one of the pioneers of sustainability news online.","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/#organization","name":"Sustainablog","url":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/cropped-sblog-logo_3b.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/cropped-sblog-logo_3b.jpg","width":200,"height":142,"caption":"Sustainablog"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/#\/schema\/person\/94b328be4b4ff77660bf858045245fe0","name":"Steve Savage","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/175e6c22e30109e61f08983a074ad717?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/175e6c22e30109e61f08983a074ad717?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Steve Savage"},"description":"Born in Denver, now living near San Diego. Agricultural scientist for 30+ years with a Ph.D. in Plant Pathology. Have worked for Colorado State University, DuPont and Mycogen and for the last 13 years consulting for all sorts or companies, universities and grower groups. Experience in biological control, natural products, synthetic chemicals, genetics, GMOs and agronomic practices. Have given multiple invited talks on the interaction between agriculture and climate change (both ways)","sameAs":["http:\/\/importantmedia.org\/members\/sdsavage\/"],"url":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/articles\/author\/sdsavage\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9915"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/110"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9915"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9915\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9933"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9915"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9915"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sustainablog.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9915"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}